THE 30-SECOND PULSE
376 Long Island listings failed in this week's MLS pull (Oct 8–15) — 263 expired, 63 canceled, 50 withdrawn. Fresh failures, not recycled inventory.
29% of the failed listings in our tracked feed were asking below 95% of automated value — sellers are cutting price first and still not selling.
THE 2 DEALS
LINDENHURST — 6BR/4.5BA, 2,909 sq ft, 7,501 sq ft lot, two-family
Situation: expired this week at $775,000 after only 15 days on market — two-family home on county records; confirmed off the MLS today, no relist, no recorded sale
Asking: $775,000
Est. ARV: ~$1,003,000 (Suffolk County assessed market value, 2025–26 — county figure, not a model)
Est. repairs: ~$95,000 (cosmetic tier — estimate, no interior access)
Spread: ~$133,000
Why it's interesting: a legal two-family priced ~$228K under the county's own assessed market value — two rents under one roof in a town where two-families are scarce.
Next step: reply to this email.
FREEPORT — 4BR/2BA, 1,766 sq ft, 5,602 sq ft lot
Situation: expired this week at $549,000 after 47 days — short sale subject to bank approval, sold as-is per the listing; confirmed off the MLS today, no relist, no recorded sale since 2007
Asking: $549,000
Est. ARV: ~$802,000 (valuation-model based — town $/sq ft anchor, not comp-checked)
Est. repairs: ~$55,000 (cosmetic tier — estimate, no interior access)
Spread: ~$198,000
Why it's interesting: a short sale asking ~$140 per sq ft under the town's typical value — the bank-approval wait is the friction, and that friction is what investors get paid for.
Next step: reply to this email.
ON THE WATCH LIST
East Patchogue — foreclosure auction confirmed for Mon Oct 19 (Auction.com); bank credit bid $529,000; Suffolk County assessed market value ~$731,000. We're tracking it into next week's issue.
Levittown — foreclosure property with strong sold comps in town; auction timing not yet confirmed. Watching.
DEAL MATH — how every spread in the Sheet gets run
Every value is labeled by its source — sold comps when we have them, the county's assessed market value or a valuation model when we don't, and the issue always says which. Repairs get estimated by condition tier before anyone calls a contractor. Spread is what's left after asking + repairs — that's the deal, not the discount.
CLOSE
Every Friday: off-market Long Island deals like these, numbers already run, while they're still off the MLS.
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