THE 30-SECOND PULSE
416 Long Island listings failed in the last 7 days alone — 328 expired, 57 canceled, 31 withdrawn. Sellers are pulling inventory instead of meeting the market.
29% of failed listings were asking below 95% of automated value — the price cuts are happening before the delistings, not after.
THE 6 DEALS
VALLEY STREAM — 4BR/3BA, 1,885 sq ft
Situation: expired 08/15 at $410,000 — price cut before delisting; confirmed off the MLS today, no relist, no recorded sale
Asking: $410,000
Est. ARV: ~$834,000
Est. repairs: ~$60,000 (cosmetic tier — estimate, no interior access)
Spread: ~$364,000
Why it's interesting: the biggest spread in the issue on a sub-$450K Nassau single-family — the price cut happened before the delisting, not after.
Next step: reply to this email.
WEST BABYLON — 2BR/1BA, 2,220 sq ft
Situation: canceled 09/10 at $369,000 — seller pulled it instead of cutting further; confirmed off the MLS today, no relist, no recorded sale
Asking: $369,000
Est. ARV: ~$796,000
Est. repairs: ~$70,000 (cosmetic tier — estimate, no interior access)
Spread: ~$357,000
Why it's interesting: canceled, not expired — the seller chose to pull it rather than meet the market, which is exactly when off-market deals happen.
Next step: reply to this email.
CORAM — 5BR/2BA, 1,823 sq ft
Situation: expired 08/19 at $350,000 — price cut before delisting; confirmed off the MLS today, no relist, no recorded sale
Asking: $350,000
Est. ARV: ~$642,000
Est. repairs: ~$60,000 (cosmetic tier — estimate, no interior access)
Spread: ~$232,000
Why it's interesting: 5 bedrooms under $350K in Suffolk with a six-figure modeled gap — the bedroom count alone makes this stand out.
Next step: reply to this email.
DEER PARK — 4BR/2BA, 1,949 sq ft, 0.17-acre lot
Situation: expired this week at $499,996 — pre-foreclosure tag on the public record and roughly a $200K gap to modeled value; confirmed off the MLS today, no relist, no recorded sale
Asking: $499,996
Est. ARV: ~$697,000
Est. repairs: ~$60,000 (cosmetic tier — estimate, no interior access)
Spread: ~$137,000
Why it's interesting: the freshest failure in the issue — a sub-$500K Suffolk single-family with distress on the public record and a six-figure modeled gap.
Next step: reply to this email.
MERRICK — 3BR/2BA, 2,070 sq ft, 5,000 sq ft lot
Situation: expired 08/24 at $550,000 — bank-approval short sale whose deal fell apart in late September; no relist and no sale since
Asking: $550,000
Est. ARV: ~$751,000
Est. repairs: ~$65,000 (cosmetic tier — estimate, no interior access)
Spread: ~$136,000
Why it's interesting: short sales that fall apart at the finish line often come back — and the bank's paperwork is already in motion.
Next step: reply to this email.
ROOSEVELT — 6BR/2.5BA, 1,537 sq ft, 7,750 sq ft lot
Situation: expired 09/13 at $520,000 — pre-foreclosure tag on the public record; fully cleared from the live MLS feed with no relist and no recorded sale
Asking: $520,000
Est. ARV: ~$645,000
Est. repairs: ~$50,000 (cosmetic tier — estimate)
Spread: ~$75,000
Why it's interesting: the smallest spread in the issue but the cleanest off-market read.
Next step: reply to this email.
DEAL MATH — how every spread in the Sheet gets run
ARV comes from sold comps — not list prices. Repairs get estimated by condition tier before anyone calls a contractor. Spread is what's left after asking + repairs — that's the project, not the profit.
CLOSE
Every Friday: 5–10 off-market Long Island deals like these, numbers already run, while they're still off the MLS.
Founding members lock $99/mo for life — the first 25 only, then it's $149/mo.