THE 30-SECOND PULSE
237 Long Island listings failed in this week's MLS pull (Oct 22-29): 151 expired, 54 canceled, 32 withdrawn. Fresh failures, not recycled inventory.
The median failed single-family ask was $849,900, and only 36 of the 207 single-family failures asked under $600K. The sub-$600K segment is where the Sheet lives, and it's scarce.
THE VERIFIED DEALS
No verified deals this week. Five properties out of the pull were individually verified, and every one failed a check that matters. One had already sold back in March. One could not be confirmed as a genuine expired listing at all. One was priced above the ceiling of its own condo complex. The last two were pulled when their own listing records contradicted each other on status. The Sheet doesn't run numbers it can't stand behind, so instead of padding the tier, the near-misses are on the watchlist below, with the price where each one actually works.
THE WATCHLIST — deals that don't pencil at asking, with the price where they would
These are this week's expired/canceled/withdrawn listings that passed every eligibility screen but miss the Sheet's spread bar (a spread of at least $40K and 10% of price, run on conservative numbers) at their asking price. Every figure is a model estimate. "Pencils at" is a target price, not the asking price. It's the number you'd have to buy it at for the spread to clear the bar. Work them toward it.
1. MEDFORD — 3BR/1.5BA, 1,296 sq ft
Situation: expired at $488,888 after only 3 days on market
Asking: $488,888
Est. ARV: ~$576,000 (valuation-model estimate, town $/sq ft anchor; no in-county comp set)
Est. repairs: ~$40,000 (cosmetic tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~$47,000 (over the dollar bar, just under the 10% test)
Pencils at: ~$487,000
Why it's interesting: the smallest gap in this week's pool. Less than $2,000 of price movement puts it over the bar, and it came off the market after only 3 days.
Next step: reply to this email.
2. MEDFORD — 3BR/2.5BA, 2,031 sq ft, 20,909 sq ft lot
Situation: canceled at $599,999 after 14 days on market
Asking: $599,999
Est. ARV: ~$723,000 (county sold-comp model, conservative leg)
Est. repairs: ~$65,000 (cosmetic tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~$58,000 (over the dollar bar, just under the 10% test)
Pencils at: ~$598,000
Why it's interesting: the dollar spread is already there with room to spare. It misses only the percentage test, by roughly $2,300 of spread. The second Medford target within $2,000 of penciling.
Next step: reply to this email.
3. MIDDLE ISLAND — 2BR/2BA, 1,670 sq ft
Situation: expired at $489,990 after 184 days on market
Asking: $489,990
Est. ARV: ~$585,000 (valuation-model estimate; both model legs agree within 2%)
Est. repairs: ~$55,000 (cosmetic tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~$40,000 (right at the dollar bar, under the 10% test)
Pencils at: ~$482,000
Why it's interesting: six months on the market before it expired is the stale-listing tell. And the two value models agree with each other here, which was rare this week.
Next step: reply to this email.
4. SOUTH HUNTINGTON — 5BR/3BA, 2,100 sq ft, 7,841 sq ft lot
Situation: expired at $599,999 after 20 days on market
Asking: $599,999
Est. ARV: ~$709,000 (county sold-comp model, conservative leg)
Est. repairs: ~$65,000 (cosmetic tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~$44,000
Pencils at: ~$586,000
Why it's interesting: five bedrooms under $600K in South Huntington, and the dollar spread already clears the bar. About $14K of price closes the percentage gap.
Next step: reply to this email.
5. SHIRLEY — 3BR/2.5BA, 1,800 sq ft, 9,148 sq ft lot
Situation: expired at $559,000 after 140 days on market
Asking: $559,000
Est. ARV: ~$643,000 (county sold-comp model, conservative leg)
Est. repairs: ~$60,000 (cosmetic tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~$24,000
Pencils at: ~$530,000
Why it's interesting: 140 days of market exposure before it expired, and the model value sits about $84K over the ask. The repair budget is what eats the spread, so a lighter scope or a $29K price move gets it there.
Next step: reply to this email.
6. MIDDLE ISLAND — 4BR/2BA, 2,410 sq ft, 9,583 sq ft lot
Situation: withdrawn at $580,000 after 22 days on market
Asking: $580,000
Est. ARV: ~$666,000 (county sold-comp model, conservative leg)
Est. repairs: ~$75,000 (cosmetic tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~$11,000
Pencils at: ~$537,000
Why it's interesting: the biggest house in the tier, pulled off the market in just over three weeks. The target is about $43K under the ask.
Next step: reply to this email.
7. CENTRAL ISLIP — 4BR/3BA, 2,160 sq ft, 5,663 sq ft lot
Situation: expired at $599,995 after 16 days on market
Asking: $599,995
Est. ARV: ~$680,000 (county sold-comp model, conservative leg)
Est. repairs: ~$70,000 (cosmetic tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~$10,000
Pencils at: ~$555,000
Why it's interesting: a 4-bedroom where the county sold-comp model already runs about $80K over the asking price. The work is in the repair budget and about $45K of price.
Next step: reply to this email.
DEAL MATH — how every spread in the Sheet gets run
ARV comes from sold comps, not list prices. Repairs get estimated by condition tier before anyone calls a contractor. Gross spread is what's left after asking + repairs. That's the project, not the profit.
The watchlist is the deals that don't pencil at asking. Each one shows the price where the spread would clear our bar, so you can work them toward it instead of guessing.
CLOSE
Every Friday: off-market Long Island deals like these, numbers already run, while they're still off the MLS.