THE 30-SECOND PULSE
402 Long Island listings failed in this week's MLS pull (Oct 15–22) — 272 expired, 82 canceled, 48 withdrawn. Fresh failures, not recycled inventory.
The median failed single-family ask was $899,000 — and only 38 of the 300 single-family failures asked under $600K. The sub-$600K segment is where the Sheet lives, and it's scarce.
THE VERIFIED DEALS
No verified deals this week. Eighteen properties out of the 402-listing pull were individually verified; every one failed a check that matters — relisted, in contract, already sold, or carrying a value that county records and sold comps wouldn't support. The last two standing were pulled when duplicate verification passes produced conflicting records for the same parcels. The Sheet doesn't run numbers it can't stand behind — so instead of padding the tier, the near-misses are on the watchlist below, with the price where each one actually works.
THE WATCHLIST — deals that don't pencil at asking, with the price where they would
These are this week's expired/canceled/withdrawn listings that passed every eligibility screen but miss the Sheet's spread bar (a spread of at least $40K and 10% of price, run on conservative numbers) at their asking price. Every figure is a model estimate. "Pencils at" is a target price, not the asking price — it's the number you'd have to buy it at for the spread to clear the bar. Work them toward it.
1. GLEN COVE — 3BR/2.5BA, 1,435 sq ft
Situation: expired at $500,000 — pre-foreclosure, vacant, handyman condition, price cut before it expired
Asking: $500,000
Est. ARV: ~$661,000 (county sold-comp model — conservative leg)
Est. repairs: ~$130,000 (heavy tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~$31,000 — real, but under the bar after a heavy rehab budget
Pencils at: ~$483,000
Why it's interesting: the only watchlist entry whose conservative value already clears asking + repairs — roughly $17K of price movement puts a vacant pre-foreclosure over the bar.
Next step: reply to this email.
2. MASSAPEQUA PARK — 6BR/2.5BA, 2,268 sq ft, 8,625 sq ft lot
Situation: canceled at $715,000 after 30 days on market, price cut
Asking: $715,000
Est. ARV: ~$796,000 (valuation-model estimate — county $/sq ft anchor; no in-county comp set)
Est. repairs: ~$75,000 (cosmetic tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~$6,000
Pencils at: ~$655,000
Why it's interesting: a 6-bedroom where the model value is already above the ask — the gap is roughly $60K of price, not a value problem.
Next step: reply to this email.
3. GLEN COVE — 2BR/2BA, 1,449 sq ft condo unit
Situation: expired at $669,000 after 90 days on market, price cut
Asking: $669,000
Est. ARV: ~$699,000 (valuation-model estimate — all three model legs agree within ~14%)
Est. repairs: ~$45,000 (cosmetic tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~−$15,000
Pencils at: ~$594,000
Why it's interesting: a rental-math unit with the cleanest model agreement in this week's pool — the target sits about $75K under the ask.
Next step: reply to this email.
4. UNIONDALE — 6BR/3BA, 1,630 sq ft, 3,999 sq ft lot
Situation: expired at $550,000 after 109 days on market, price cut
Asking: $550,000
Est. ARV: ~$572,000 (valuation-model estimate — county $/sq ft anchor; no in-county comp set)
Est. repairs: ~$50,000 (cosmetic tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~−$28,000
Pencils at: ~$474,000
Why it's interesting: six bedrooms at the lowest asking price in the tier, and it sat for 109 days before expiring — time on market is the tell.
Next step: reply to this email.
5. EAST ROCKAWAY — 3BR/2BA, 1,890 sq ft, 2,609 sq ft lot
Situation: expired at $679,000 after a full year on the market (365 days), price cut
Asking: $679,000
Est. ARV: ~$663,000 (valuation-model estimate — county $/sq ft anchor; no in-county comp set)
Est. repairs: ~$60,000 (cosmetic tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~−$76,000
Pencils at: ~$548,000
Why it's interesting: a year of market exposure before it expired is the stale-listing profile that tends to move on price — the target is about $131K under the ask.
Next step: reply to this email.
6. MASSAPEQUA PARK — 5BR/3BA, 2,410 sq ft, 5,998 sq ft lot
Situation: expired at $849,999 after only 5 days on market, price cut
Asking: $849,999
Est. ARV: ~$845,000 (valuation-model estimate — county $/sq ft anchor; no in-county comp set)
Est. repairs: ~$75,000 (cosmetic tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~−$80,000
Pencils at: ~$700,000
Why it's interesting: gone in five days — something changed fast. The target is a round ~$700K against an ~$845K model value.
Next step: reply to this email.
7. SEAFORD — 3BR/2.5BA, 1,898 sq ft, 7,200 sq ft lot
Situation: expired at $765,000 after 88 days on market, price cut
Asking: $765,000
Est. ARV: ~$666,000 (valuation-model estimate — county $/sq ft anchor; no in-county comp set)
Est. repairs: ~$60,000 (cosmetic tier estimate)
Spread at asking: ~−$159,000
Pencils at: ~$551,000
Why it's interesting: the long shot of the tier — it's here because every closer candidate failed on contradicting estimates. A lowball target if you work Seaford anyway.
Next step: reply to this email.
DEAL MATH — how every spread in the Sheet gets run
ARV comes from sold comps — not list prices. Repairs get estimated by condition tier before anyone calls a contractor. Gross spread is what's left after asking + repairs — that's the project, not the profit.
The watchlist is the deals that don't pencil at asking — each one shows the price where the spread would clear our bar, so you can work them toward it instead of guessing.
CLOSE
Every Friday: off-market Long Island deals like these, numbers already run, while they're still off the MLS.