🟢 THE 30-SECOND PULSE
- 360 Nassau/Suffolk listings expired, canceled, or were withdrawn in the last 30 days — sellers are pulling inventory off the market instead of cutting to meet it.
- 66% of those failed listings were asking below 95% of automated value — price-cut activity is real. (236/360, recomputed 2026-10-02.)
THE DEALS — 5 verified still off-market as of 2026-10-02.
1. VALLEY STREAM
3BR (per county records)/2–3BA, 1,885 sq ft
Property type + situation: 2-unit duplex, expired 08/15 at $410,000 — still off the MLS as of 10/2 (no relist, pending, or sold since; no new deed recorded). Price verified flat through two listing cycles — no price cut ever happened.
Investment thesis: a 2-unit at single-family money — house-hack or buy-and-hold investors should be doing the rental math on this one.
Asking: $410,000
Est. ARV: ~$834,000 (3-way validated — 5+ recent sold duplex/2-family comps in 11580, $675K–$1.15M range)
Est. repairs: ~$60,000 (cosmetic tier — estimate; no public photos or listing remarks exist)
Spread: ~$364,000 ($834,000 − $410,000 − $60,000)
Why it's off-market: owned since 2004 ($412,000 deed) — the asking is basically the 2004 purchase price, and the seller pulled the listing rather than cut.
Next step: reply to this email.
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2. WEST BABYLON
2,220 sq ft, 3 baths (bedroom count unverified in public records), 15,010 sq ft lot
Property type + situation: single-family, canceled 09/10 at $369,000 per MLS data — confirmed off the MLS today via the NY State MLS record page ("not currently listed for sale… Off Market"); no sale since 2007 ($460,000); no active, pending, or relisted trace anywhere.
Investment thesis: confirmed off-market this week in a zip where renovated homes are clearing $800K — the gap is the opportunity.
Asking: $369,000
Est. ARV: ~$710,000 (3-way validated — conservative mid-upper of the 11704 sold band; TopHap ~$688K, PropertyShark market value $654K)
Est. repairs: ~$70,000 (cosmetic tier — estimate)
Spread: ~$271,000 ($710,000 − $369,000 − $70,000)
Why it's off-market: the cancel event has no public trace — the listing simply vanished from the MLS after a flat-price run.
Next step: reply to this email.
Full address — paid members only
3. CORAM
5BR per the expired listing (tax records show 3BR)/2BA, 1,823 sq ft
Property type + situation: single-family, expired 08/19 at $350,000 — still off the MLS as of 10/2 (no sale since 1999 at $153,000). Pre-foreclosure short sale: no access, all-cash, subject to third-party approval. Price flat — no verified price cut.
Investment thesis: the valuation is the cleanest in the issue — every leg of the model agrees — but price in the unknowns on condition.
Asking: $350,000
Est. ARV: ~$618,000 (3-way validated — near-identical neighbor sold $600K in March; Coram single-family medians $610–621K)
Est. repairs: ~$60,000 (cosmetic tier — estimate; no-access listing, deferred-maintenance risk on roof/systems)
Spread: ~$208,000 ($618,000 − $350,000 − $60,000)
Why it's off-market: pre-foreclosure short sale with no access for showings — the conditions that scare retail buyers are exactly what create the spread.
Next step: reply to this email.
Full address — paid members only
4. MERRICK
3BR/2BA colonial, ~2,070 sq ft (living area not confirmed in IDX feeds), 5,000 sq ft lot
Property type + situation: single-family, expired 08/24 at $550,000 — 2.5-year short sale ("as is, subject to bank approval," listed since 02/29/2024) that sat in bank-approval limbo and fell out of contract within the last week; no sale since 2006. Price flat — no verified price cut. Off-market today per fresh Weichert and Century21 feeds.
Investment thesis: 2.5 years of bank-approval purgatory just ended — the motivated-bank dynamic is back on the table at a flat, stale price.
Asking: $550,000
Est. ARV: ~$750,000 (3-way validated — 19 recent sales, county/type basis)
Est. repairs: ~$65,000 (cosmetic tier — estimate)
Spread: ~$135,000 ($750,000 − $550,000 − $65,000)
Why it's off-market: the short-sale deal died in underwriting, not at the negotiating table — seller fatigue is the investor's edge here.
Next step: reply to this email.
Full address — paid members only
5. ROOSEVELT
6BR per the expired listing, 1,537 sq ft (baths unreconciled: county 1.5 vs listing 2.5–3)
Property type + situation: single-family, expired 09/13 at $520,000 — flat price from list to expiration; RealtyTrac pre-foreclosure tag; no sale recorded. Off-market today per fresh RealtyTrac feed.
Investment thesis: the thinnest spread in the issue, but the freshest expiration — early-bird advantage on a motivated seller.
Asking: $520,000
Est. ARV: ~$645,000 (3-way validated — 25 recent sales, county/type basis)
Est. repairs: ~$50,000 (cosmetic tier — estimate)
Spread: ~$75,000 ($645,000 − $520,000 − $50,000)
Why it's off-market: pre-foreclosure, flat $520K ask, expired without a cut — the bank clock is the seller's pressure now. (Bath count caveat: county says 1.5, the listing said 2.5–3 — treat any basement bath as unpermitted until proven otherwise.)
Next step: reply to this email.
Full address — paid members only
DEAL MATH — how every spread in the Sheet gets run
ARV comes from sold comps — not list prices. Repairs get estimated by condition tier before anyone calls a contractor. Gross spread is what's left after asking + repairs — that's the project, not the profit.
CLOSE
That's Issue #1.
Every Friday: 5–10 off-market Long Island deals like these, numbers already run, while they're still off the MLS.
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Spread footnote: Gross spread = estimated ARV minus asking price and estimated repairs. It excludes financing, carrying, transaction, resale, and contingency costs — it is not profit. All figures are estimates for screening purposes only; verify independently before you act.